VACCINE SUPPLY MAY FALL SHORT OF TARGET

       GPO's problems may result in agency being unable to provide planned 20m doses by December
       Thailand may miss a crucial December deadline in the production of 20 million vaccine doses to combat the 2009 influenza, experts said yesterday.
       Based on the government's schedule, the first 20 million doses are supposed to be available in the last month of the year as the second wave of the flu pandemic will likely land in two to three months.
       However, the Government Pharmaceutical Organisation (GPO), the agency responsible for vaccine production, has run into significant problems so it is unlikely there would be enough vaccine by December.
       Government and other experts, who asked not to be named, said there have been further delays in testing the new flu vaccine in eggs, while more vaccine plants are needed to produce enough doses.
       Only Silpakorn University's Faculty of Pharmacy is contracted to produce 10 million doses of the new-flu vaccine, so the GPO is still negotiating with other parties to supply the remaining volume.
       Sources said the specific pathogen-free eggs imported from Germany for vaccine testing have produced low yields of the new flu vaccine.
       The GPO recently decided to turn to other countries with an order placed for the same type of eggs from a supplier in Massachusetts in the US.
       But the first batch of new eggs from the US were damaged during transportation, resulting in a further delay in the vaccine testing process in Thailand.
       The next shipment of US eggs will not arrive here until September 15, sources said.
       The GPO will miss the first September 4 deadline to test the vaccines in humans as it has enough doses for only 12 out of the required 24 human volunteers.
       The rest of the volunteers will have to wait for the next shipment of eggs from the US.
       Even if the new US eggs arrive on September 15, the remaining tests on humans will not be completed until the end of September.
       The eggs will need to be cultured for seven days then seven days more are needed for testing the vaccines in animals before they could be tested on humans.
       Public Health Minister Witthaya Kaewparadai admitted there could be further delays in vaccine production as the government is waiting for the GPO to finalise its plan.
       According to a research paper from Dr Jongkol Lertthiendamrong of the international health policy programme, Thailand needs about 40 million doses of the new-flu vaccine to cover the entire population aged from six months to 49.
       It will take up to 17 months to produce such a huge quantity of medicine, according to the paper.
       The government should also consider converting a poultry vaccine plant belonging to the Livestock Development Department in Nakhon Ratchasima into another production facility for the new-flu vaccines since a Bt80 million upgrade can be done in three months.